Hog & Corn Comment – 02/08/10 Hogs held support and rallied.

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CORN – Mar ‘10 Electronic
Open – $3.54, High – $3.62, Low – $3.53 1/2, Close – $3.56 Up $.04 1/2
Thoughts – Long Term (into April ‘10) – Sideways

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Mar ‘10: I said last week that if the market closed below $3.57 3/4, which it did, the next target could be $3.15.  The weekly chart was showing a warning sign that the market MAY be done going down for now, this is a warning signal NOT a buy signal, it just means pay attention.  The market started off firmer today but then failed to hold its gains midway through the session and closed the day rather ugly from a chart perspective.

$3.57 3/4 is still an area of importance and will be watched closely by the trade this coming Friday because if we close two weeks below the $3.57 3/4 support level then we make a bigger case for the $3.15 area.  Key things to watch this week technically is a close above $3.57 3/4 would be friendly to the market and a close above $3.68 1/4 would suggest that the market has bottomed for the short-term.

Bottom line: I am looking for the market to experience an early high tomorrow and then fade as the session progresses.  There is a USDA report out in the morning which should provide some direction and any surprises will trump my prediction of an early high.

Mar ‘10 Corn – Support/Resistance for 02-09-10
(R3) Resistance 3: $3.74 1/4
(R2) Resistance 2: $3.65 3/4
(R1) Resistance 1: $3.60 3/4
Today’s close: $3.56
(
S1) Support 1: $3.52 1/4
(S2) Support 2: $3.48 3/4
(S3) Support 3: $3.40 1/4
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MEAL – Mar ‘10 Electronic
Open – $272.80, High – $276.00, Low – $272.70, Close – $274.40 Up $3.40

Thoughts – Long Term (i
nto April ‘10) – Sideways/Lower

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Mar ‘10 meal: Meal had a good close and trade action on Thursday of last week and proceeded to take out the prior day high on Friday but failed to close above it.  It appears as though this little three day rally we’ve had just might be a rally to sell at higher levels.  $278.00 remains a key number for me and if we close the market below this level again this week I will become more bearish this market but for now I feel like we could trade sideway’s for a short period.

If the Mar ’10 meal doesn’t get back above $278.00 by this Friday’s close then we could see more downside in the meal market with downside targets of $262.00, $254.60 and ultimately $235.00 but I wouldn’t say I’m that negative at this point.

Bottom line: I’m looking for the market to experience an early high tomorrow.

Mar ‘10 Meal – Support/Resistance for 02-09-10
(R3) Resistance 3: $281.00
(R2) Resistance 2: $277.70

(R1) Resistance 1: $276.00

Today’s close: $274.40
(S1) Support 1: $272.70
(S2) Support 2: $271.10

(S3) Support 3: $267.80

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HOGS – Apr ‘10 GLOBEX
Open – $67.30, High – $69.05, Low – $67.15, Close – $68.775 Up $2.025
Thoughts – Long Term
(into April) – Neutral/Higher

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Hog margins continue to show some profit for the coming year.  If you would like to run a profitability crush for your operation, email us at leanhog@hurleyandassociates.com.

Apr‘10 hogs: April futures provided us with some optimism today as we rallied over $2.00 cwt in the April ’10 contract.  I am very encouraged by the trade action today as we closed above last weeks high of $68.50.  We really need to close the week above the $68.50 level before we can get very excited but it seems like things are looking up again after the move lower that we’ve had over the past three weeks.

As I said last week I do have a cycle low projected for Feb 16th (it was Feb 9th last week but its a moving target based on trade) and the market held and closed above some key levels for me so I am getting more and more friendly to this market. We left a gap on the April ’10 futures chart at $70.45 which could be a near-term target as we move forward in the short-term.

Bottom line: I’m looking for an early high tomorrow.

Apr ‘10 Hogs – Support/Resistance for 02-09-10
(R3) Resistance 3: $71.775
(R2) Resistance 2: $70.225
(R1) Resistance 1: $69.50
Today’s close: $68.775
(S1) Support 1: $67.60
(S2) Support 2: $66.425
(S3) Support 3: $64.525

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Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.

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