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Hog & Corn Comments – 02/03/10 Hogs continue to look for a bottom

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CORN – Mar ‘10 Electronic
Open – $3.65, High – $3.68 1/4, Low – $3.52 3/4, Close – $3.53 Down $.12
Thoughts – Long Term (into April ‘10) – Sideways

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Mar ‘10: I said yesterday that I needed to see more positive closes after yesterday’s gains to get on the corn moving higher bandwagon and today was not positive!  The market made fresh lows for this move and also closed near this low.  Volume was good in the Mar ’10 contract which makes me think today’s action was for real and not just a one day thing.  The only thing that I see that is friendly from this is IF we would open below $3.52 3/4 and immediately move higher as it would create a buy signal at $3.53 1/2 STOP for the short-term.

The weekly chart is struggling to stay above the $3.57 3/4 support area as we blew past it today and settled the day below it.  If we settle below $3.57 3/4 on Friday of this week we could see more downside pressure with the ultimate target being the $3.15 area.  I said the other day that I wasn’t that bearish to think we would hit $3.15 and I’m still in that camp but if we close below $3.57 3/4 on Friday the market may take a look at it as a target.

Bottom line: I am looking for the market to experience an early low tomorrow.

Mar ‘10 Corn – Support/Resistance for 02-04-10
(R3) Resistance 3: $3.83
(R2) Resistance 2: $3.72
(R1) Resistance 1: $3.63 1/4
Today’s close: $3.53
(
S1) Support 1: $3.47 3/4
(S2) Support 2: $3.42 1/2
(S3) Support 3: $3.27
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MEAL – Mar ‘10 Electronic
Open – $273.60, High – $276.90, Low – $268.00, Close – $268.90 Down $4.70

Thoughts – Long Term (i
nto April ‘10) – Sideways/Lower

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Mar ‘10 meal: Meal didn’t help its cause any today as we closed near the low of the day.  The weekly chart is showing the market below the upward trend-line which is around the $278.00 level that I’ve been talking about this week.  If the Mar ’10 meal doesn’t get back above $278.00 by this Friday’s close then we could see more downside in the meal market with downside targets of $262.00, $254.60 and ultimately $235.00 but I wouldn’t say I’m that negative at this point.

Bottom line: I’m looking for the market to experience an early high tomorrow.

Mar ‘10 Meal – Support/Resistance for 02-04-10
(R3) Resistance 3: $280.20
(R2) Resistance 2: $274.50

(R1) Resistance 1: $271.30

Today’s close: $268.90
(S1) Support 1: $265.60
(S2) Support 2: $262.40

(S3) Support 3: $253.50

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HOGS – Apr ‘10 GLOBEX
Open – $67.10, High – $67.275, Low – $66.65, Close – $67.075 Up $.225
Thoughts – Long Term
(into April) – Neutral/Higher

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Hog margins continue to show some profit for the coming year.  If you would like to run a profitability crush for your operation, email us at leanhog@hurleyandassociates.com.

Apr‘10 hogs: April futures continued its strength today; however, it wasn’t by leaps and bounds.  I wanted the market to close above yesterday’s high of $67.375 but we were unable to do so.  I want to see two consecutive closes above a prior day high before getting bullish the market but it does feel like we are finding a bottom in this area.  If the market closes above $67.40 by this Friday I will consider this week a possible reversal signal back to the upside.  The reversal would only be true if the market made a new high above this week’s high of $68.55.

As I said the other day it feels like cutout has done enough to the downside for the moment as the cash market is beginning to firm once again.  We have taken a lot off of the cutout values and packers have survived this with margin to spare.  I don’t believe we are going to bounce back as fast as we fell apart in the cutout but I do think our downside between now and the end of the month is limited.

I said yesterday “Again keep an eye on the $66.52 area this Friday as we want the April ‘10 contract to close above this level in order to stay healthy on the charts as I see them.  I still have a cycle low projected for Feb 9th time-frame in the April contract so I don’t expect a runaway market to the upside but I do believe we have moved low enough for now IF we close above $67.07 tomorrow.” and we did close above the $67.07 area I spoke of but by very little.

Bottom line: I’m looking for an early low tomorrow.

Apr ‘10 Hogs – Support/Resistance for 02-04-10
(R3) Resistance 3: $68.25
(R2) Resistance 2: $67.625
(R1) Resistance 1: $67.35
Today’s close: $67.075
(S1) Support 1: $66.725
(S2) Support 2: $66.375
(S3) Support 3: $65.75

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Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.

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