NEW!!! – If you would like to receive delayed market quotes and/or weather forecast text messages at a time(s) during the day that you designate, please send an email to leanhog@hurleyandassociates.com to get setup.  There is no cost for this service.

Click here for Daily Prices & Fundamentals

CORN – Dec ‘09 Electronic
Open – $3.84, High – $3.97, Low – $3.79 1/4, Close – $3.94 1/2 Up $.08 1/2
Thoughts – Long Term (into December ‘09) – Sideways/Lower

Click here for previous post

Dec ‘09: The market traded both sides of unchanged today with a slightly friendly report from the USDA this morning.  The report was somewhat offset because the soybean portion of the report was negative and hindered a higher opening for corn.  The market opened lower then traded higher before backing off again until noon when it managed to find new life to the upside again.  It is interesting when you look for correlations between corn and the dollar or crude.  Sometimes it is there and sometimes it isn’t, like today for example crude was lower and the dollar was higher as corn rallied at noon to turn the market positive again.

We are on the sidelines in corn right now as the weather forecast is now drier again for the weekend, the forecast has flip flopped so many times in the past month it is hard to keep track!  Logic would say we should experience good harvest progress for the next week or so and logic would suggest pressure on the market but as I’ve said before sometimes logic is an irrational word.  We are going to remain on the sidelines for now until this market settles down.  There seems to be buying coming at times that don’t make sense and I feel there will be opportunities to own corn at a lower price that we have today however I could change my mind tomorrow so as always do what is right for you and your operation!

Bottom line: I am looking for the market to experience an early high tomorrow.

Dec ‘09 Corn – Support/Resistance for 11-11-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $4.13 1/2
(R2) Resistance 2: $4.08
(R1) Resistance 1: $4.01 1/4
Today’s close: $3.94 1/2
(S1) Support 1: $3.901/4
(S2) Support 2: $3.83 1/2
(S3) Support 3: $3.72 1/2
_________________________________________________________________________

MEAL – Dec ‘09 Electronic
Open – $293.40, High – $294.20, Low – $284.00, Close – $288.20 Down $6.10
Thoughts – Long Term (into November ‘09) – Sideways/Lower

Click here for previous post

Dec ‘09 meal: Meal took it on the chin today as it tested the support area of $283.40 I spoke of in my last my last post.  It feels like the $283.40 area wants to hold as our low for now but I need more confirmation to be comfortable with it.  If $283.40 doesn’t hold then we could see a test of $266.10 but I’m not confidant we are going to reach that level but we have also gotten a bearish soybean report since I made this comment last week.

For now I’m sticking with my thought of the $283.40 area holding support but if we closed two consecutive day’s below $283.40 then we could certainly test $266.10.  We will look for an opportunity to establish our long meal positions when the market dictates this type of move and it could come sooner rather than later judging by the way the charts are setting up.

Bottom line: I’m looking for the market to experience an early low tomorrow.

Dec ‘09 Meal – Support/Resistance for 11-11-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $309.20
(R2) Resistance 2: $299.00
(R1) Resistance 1: $293.60
Today’s close: $288.20
(S1) Support 1: $283.40
(S2) Support 2: $278.60
(S3) Support 3: $268.40

_________________________________________________________________________

HOGS – Dec ‘09 GLOBEX
Open – $55.65, High – $56.075, Low – $55.225, Close – $55.625 Down $.175
Thoughts – Long Term (into December) – Neutral

Click here for previous post

Dec ‘09 hogs: The Dec ’09 hogs were very quiet today as today marks day three of the Goldman roll which typically makes a mess of the market as they try to execute their business.  The last day of the roll should conclude on Thursday of this week.  The market looks like it could be slowing down and looking for a small pop higher as we move forward over the coming day or two.  The intra-day charts suggest higher prices for tomorrow which I would agree with.

I still have the market moving lower over time into the beginning of next week but that isn’t to say we will not have fluctuation between now and then.  Today’s low was exactly 50% of the way back to the $52.10 low we had on Oct 20th.  Typically the markets will retrace to 50% of a move to see if it can find more buyers if the market is trending higher or more sellers if the market is trending lower.  Thus far the market has found support at the $55.25 area although I think we could have one more test of this level to make sure the market wants to make another move higher.

This Friday’s close will give us more indication of market direction.  If the market closes below last week’s low of $55.625 it will be the first time since the week of Aug 3rd that we have done so in the Dec ’09 contract.  If we close below $55.625 on Friday I will be looking for more downside next week but if we don’t then this setback that we’ve had for the last few trading sessions could just be profit taking action.

We remain in our synthetic put positions for now so we have downside risk protected in the market and the upside opportunity is completely open.

Bottom line: I’m looking for an early low tomorrow.

Dec ‘09 Hogs – Support/Resistance for 11-11-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $57.40
(R2) Resistance 2: $56.55
(R1) Resistance 1: $56.175
Today’s close: $55.625
(S1) Support 1: $55.325
(S2) Support 2: $54.85
(S3) Support 3: $54.00
(S4) Support 4: N/A
(S5) Support 5: N/A
(S6) Support 5: N/A

Click here to view cash and cutout reports

Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.

NEW!!! – If you would like to receive delayed market quotes and/or weather forecast text messages at a time(s) during the day that you designate, please send an email to leanhog@hurleyandassociates.com to get setup.  There is no cost for this service.

Click here for Daily Prices & Fundamentals

CORN – Dec ‘09 Electronic
Open – $3.83 3/4, High – $3.87 1/2, Low – $3.76, Close – $3.76 1/2 Down $.07 1/2
Thoughts – Long Term (into December ‘09) – Sideways/Lower

Click here for previous post

Dec ‘09: Again we falter with good harvest weather in the forecast, the fund buying all but dead and the dollar index trading higher. The excitement wasn’t there this morning before the market opened.  The overnight session traded higher but ultimately settled unchanged going into the day session.  As mentioned the weather is benefits better harvest progress for next week and if producers can get in the fields and actually keep going we could knock out a lot of corn in the coming days.  Assuming the bushels are still there, we could/should see some hedge pressure come into the market due to the presumed excess of bushels that can’t be stored on the farm.

As stated yesterday we exited our long corn futures and are waiting for an opportunity to jump back in, we haven’t yet but we are monitoring it closely.  We will see how the market acts around the $3.74 to $3.78 area over the next day or two and decide from there.  If we close below $3.78 for two consecutive days, today being day one, then we have some support at $3.74 but ultimately $3.59 1/4.  Don’t be fooled, I’m sure we can change things back to the upside again if the weather should turn wet again but for now assuming it doesn’t $3.78 needs to hold if the market wants to rally.

If you have no coverage I would suggest you talk with your broker and buy some out of the money calls for catastrophic protection if this thing really gets moving.  If $4.13 1/2 is breached and we close above it for two consecutive days the markets next target is the summer high of $4.73 1/2.

Bottom line: I am looking for the market to experience an early low tomorrow.

Dec ‘09 Corn – Support/Resistance for 11-06-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $4.03
(R2) Resistance 2: $3.91 1/2
(R1) Resistance 1: $3.84
Today’s close: $3.76 1/2
(S1) Support 1: $3.72 1/2
(S2) Support 2: $3.68 1/2
(S3) Support 3: $3.57
_________________________________________________________________________

MEAL – Dec ‘09 Electronic
Open – $300.60, High – $301.50, Low – $291.20, Close – $291.20 Down $10.30
Thoughts – Long Term (into November ‘09) – Sideways/Lower

Click here for previous post

Dec ‘09 meal: Meal finally broke today and we exited our long meal position near where we got in around $297.50 basis the Dec ’09 contract.  The market looks like it wants to test the $288.80 number that it flirted with last week and if $288.80 doesn’t hold support then we could test $283.40 and ultimately $266.10.  I’m not confident that $266.10 is attainable at this point but it isn’t out of the question.  I feel we should see good support at $283.40 if we get there.

We will look to re-enter our meal hedges at a lower level unless the market tells us to do it before.  Soybeans were hit hard today and got to almost 50% of a limit move which is how far the Dec ’09 meal got, down over $10.00/ton at one point.  Longer-term the weekly charts still point to higher meal prices as long as $266.40 holds in the Dec contract so any price breaks deserve attention if you need to lock in meal.  As always make sure these statements hold true to you and your situation, I am purely giving opinions on market price and not the actual profitability of your operation.

Again as mentioned before it is basically up to the funds if they want to keep this market at this level, if their appetite for meal has expired then I would look for the market to back off but they are ultimately in control right now.

Bottom line: I’m looking for the market to experience an early low tomorrow.

Dec ‘09 Meal – Support/Resistance for 11-06-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $311.20
(R2) Resistance 2: $305.00
(R1) Resistance 1: $298.10
Today’s close: $291.20
(S1) Support 1: $287.80
(S2) Support 2: $284.40
(S3) Support 3: $274.10

_________________________________________________________________________

HOGS – Dec ‘09 GLOBEX
Open – $58.00, High – $58.40, Low – $56.575, Close – $56.60 Down $1.20
Thoughts – Long Term (into December) – Neutral

Click here for previous post

Dec ‘09 hogs: The Dec ’09 hogs rallied on the open but that was as far as they got, it was all downhill from there.  I was expecting an early low today which was the exact opposite of what happened.  As I’ve been saying for the last couple of days we have been showing signs of a top but it is hard to make a call anymore because the funds buy when they want to buy regardless of fundamentals or technical considerations.

We had a downside reversal in hogs similar to the one we had on October 20th and we all know that was a good signal (insert sarcasm here).  If the signal indeed is good then we should expect more selling tomorrow and begin trending lower from here.  Again I have a tough time saying the rally is done because I don’t know what the funds appetite for lean hog futures is so I’m hesitant.  I’ve been saying for some time now to get hedge coverage in place via a known risk strategy and I still agree with that logic as the futures still have a lead on cash.

I hear rumblings of weaker product values coming but the cutout remains solid inching higher almost daily so this is another reason to have your upside open in case we see demand pick up further. I am expecting an early low tomorrow and we could rally back to $57.47 in the Dec ’09 contract and if we fail to trade above that level for an hour or so then we could fall back toward today’s low of $56.57 and try to make a new low.  So watch for $57.47 tomorrow and if the market manages to trade above it for around an hour then we could remain firm the balance of the day but if it can’t trade above this level for the same amount of time then we could fall off at the end of the day.

Under normal (what’s normal anymore?) market conditions I would typically say that the $59.225 upside target area is off the table with the downside reversal we had today but I’m not going to say that just yet, I want to see how we close tomorrow first.  The U.S. Dollar Index was hardly a factor today as it traded higher but nothing significant compared to the movement in recent days.

We remain in our synthetic put positions for now so we have downside risk protected in the market and the upside opportunity is completely open.

Bottom line: I’m looking for an early low tomorrow.

Dec ‘09 Hogs – Support/Resistance for 11-06-09
(R3) Resistance 3: $59.075
(R2) Resistance 2: $57.90
(R1) Resistance 1: $57.25
Today’s close: $56.60
(S1) Support 1: $56.00
(S2) Support 2: $55.40
(S3) Support 3: $53.60
(S4) Support 4: N/A
(S5) Support 5: N/A
(S6) Support 5: N/A

Click here to view cash and cutout reports

Hurley & Associates believes positions are unique to each person’s risk bearing ability; marketing strategy; and crop conditions, therefore we give no blanket recommendations. The risk of loss in trading commodities can be substantial, therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. NFA Rules require us to advise you that past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no guarantee that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.